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|Title:||Travel - Dr Tom Lei: National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuka, Japan|
|Keywords:||decision support systems|
mechanism modelling of pest damage
|Publisher:||CSlRO Plant Industry|
|Abstract:||The development of decision support systems to assist cotton growers is a key part of facilitating sustainable cotton cropping within Integrated Pest Management principles. One system that has been in use in Australia is the SIRATAC/OZCOT simulation model which predicts yield based on agronomy and weather input daki. This model is currently undergoing improvements including the incorporation of cotton response to pest damage. Reliable prediction of yield compensation to pest damage will enable growers to improve confide~icein the principles and maximise natural recovery and minimise pesticide application and its negative impact.' Over the last several yeal-S,field trials at the CSIRO Narrabri have generated a substantial dataset on the growth and yield effects of damage ranging from early season defoliation and tip damage to single and multiple fruit removal events (by Lewis Wilson, Victor Sadras and Tom Lei). It has become clcar that reliable prediction of compensation requires the modelling of not only fruit losses but canopy development which can bc significantly altered by pl-c-squaringterminal and leaf damage. To fully account for the process of compensation, we need to include in the model space- and time-specific variations in light interception, carbon assimilation, regrowth and fruiting potential following damage. Specifically, the spatial arrangement of leaves and branching structure should be explicitly accounted for in the mechanistic modelling of pest damage, the response in plant growth, and its consequences in light capture. T o best achieve rapid initiation of the modelling work, I spent one month collaborating with Dr. AkioTakenaka at the National Institute for Environmental Studies (Japan). Dr. Takenaka has an established expertise in modelling the interaction between canopy architecture, light interception and carbon uptake (see a list of his relevant papers below). W e will develop a compensation submodel capable of simulating the effect of tip, leaf and early square damage on lateral branch and canopy growth and the consequences of architecture on light interception, carbon assimilation, and fruiting dynamics. Calibration of parameters (e.g., leaf area index, photosynthesis, number of fruiting sites) will be derived from published results (see references below) and recent field data (from C S R O Narrabri). Although Dr. Takenaka has not worked with cotton, the physiological principles from his research and modclling should apply to cotton and may provide input of new ideas into OZCOT which could assist with futureenhancements. We will also explore the possibility for Dr. Takenaka to visit the OZCOT modelling group in future to expand this collaboration if necessary. The linking of the compensation submodel to OZCOT will be done with the approval and support of Dr. Stevc Milroy and Dr. Mike Bangc who are currently directing the core model revision.|
|Appears in Collections:||2001 Final Reports|
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