In 2017, the National Farmers’ Federation announced a vision for Australian agriculture to

exceed a farm gate value of $100 billion by 2030. AgriFutures Australia commissioned ACIL Allen to:

Establish a baseline projection which estimated a farm-gate value of $84.3 billion by 2030, $15.7 billion below the target.

Investigate what opportunities and

barriers impact agriculture’s ability to exceed the target and deliver enduring profitability.

Understanding the $100 billion vision

The $100 billion target was created to provide focus and establish national dialogue on how to grow the sector. The target is ambitious, requiring a growth rate of 3% annually, double the current trend. The target is directional for how Australia can increase productivity and better prices in the face of ongoing climate and market volatility. Success

is greater enduring and sustainable profitability rather than pursuing farm-gate value at any cost, or claiming credit from favourable conditions.

Progress toward the target requires alignment and execution of strategies that contribute to improved enduring profitability. The strategies need to be sufficiently flexible to facilitate adaptation across the industries that make up agriculture and over time as the need, and circumstances allow.

Drivers and risks on which strategies can be built

Four drivers and four risks have been identified based on nationwide consultation across industries and analysis. The drivers and risks were chosen on the basis they can provide an enduring platform on which strategies can be supported, built and implemented. They are adaptable and not exclusive.

Drivers

Technology and data – getting more from adoption

Off-farm R&D – creating value up the supply chain

Off-farm infrastructure –efficiency & capital attraction

Markets – accelerating access and development

Risks

Climate and water – adapting farming & infrastructure

Biosecurity – sharing responsibility to sustain integrity

Regulation – sustained reform for efficiency & integrity

Consumers – meeting/exceeding changing preference

Moving towards action

The report provides an approach for conceptualising the opportunities and risks, against the backdrop of uncertainty, facing agriculture. The approach presents a range of possible strategies/investments for delivering enduring profitability by the sector. For these strategies/ investments to be implementation ready’ it will be necessary:

• To address the immediate opportunities and risks with a targeted program of investments

• • For industry and government to co-invest in the design of strategies/investments that meet the requirements of each industry and agriculture as they emerge. These strategies/investments may not be

the same as those reccomended and could include

provide an enduring platform on which strategies can be supported, built and implemented. They are adaptable and not exclusive.

Risks

Climate and water – adapting farming & infrastructure Biosecurity – sharing responsibility to sustain integrity Regulation – sustained reform for efficiency & integrity Consumers – meeting/exceeding changing preference

industry-wide investments. If the risks become severe it is anticipated that the costs of developing these strategies/investments will be insignificant compared to the costs of implementing structural adjustment policies and industry support mechanisms that are either insufficient or overly engineered

• To build the institutional framework which will provide clarity for the roles and responsibilities of parties to the vision and to provide a platform for coordination, and investment.

• • To build the analytical and research capabilities of institutions required to monitor the economic, social and environmental costs and benefits associated with prosecuting the $100 billion vision.