An important question is the area of origin of these spring immigrants. Over the last 3 years, we have been investigating the ecology of Heliothis spp. in inland Australia (Gregg et al. 1987, 1989). The most recent findings of this work are summarised by G. Fitt et al.in these Proceedings. Large populations of H. punctigera, and smaller but still significant populations of H. armigera, have been found over vast areas. They breed on native annual plants in winter. These plants dry off rapidly in spring, and the Heliothis disappear. This paper presents evidence which indicates that in 1989 they emigrated from the inland, and that significant nunbers arrived in the cotton areas of northern N.S.W. and southern Queensland.

Heliothis spp. are clearly the major pests of Australian cotton and consequently there has been considerable research on their biology, ecology and control (Zalucki et al 1986). Most of this research has focused on Heliothis populations on particular crops within cropping areas. However, these species are not restricted to crops and exploit a wide range of non-cultivated host plants within and outside the cropping areas, in addition to their many cultivated hosts.

The pattern of flight activity within or between habitats or crops is dependent upon the distribution of those habitats/crops in both space and time. Similarly the pattern of movement of moths over large areas may be determined largely by shifting seasonal patterns of habitat availability. In both these instances, the inherent flight capacity of an individual is critical in determining its ability to exploit the ephemeral nature of both cropping and non-cropping systems.

Information about the frequency and intensity of immigration and emigration movements is essential for forecasting Heliothis infestation levels in crops, and thus for developing more efficient strategies for managing this pest. In particular, there is a specific need for this information for incorporation into computer models of Heliothis population processes that are being developed as aids to pest managers (Dillon & Pitt 1990). To meet this need, a comprehensive study of Heliothis movement is being undertaken at Narrabri Agricultural Research Station by researchers from CSIRO's Division of Entomology. In this paper, we outline the research methods being used and present some preliminary results for the first full season of observations, 1989/90

The potential for extensive adult movements is one of the key factors contributing to the success of Heliothis spp. as pests (Farrow & Daly 1987, Fitt 1989). Adult movements may occur on several spatial scales; from one field to another, between areas within a valley or between regions (see Gregg et al 1990). Quantitative information about adult behaviour, and movement in particular, is required for the Heliothis population models currently being developed to provide forecasts of infestations on cotton crops (Dillon & Fitt 1990). There are a number of questions to be answered and these are being tackled using a range of techniques (Drake & Fitt 1990) to provide a comprehensive picture of Heliothis movement In particular we are interested in the behaviour of newly emerged moths produced from crops within the cotton areas. How far do these moths fly before colonising a crop in which to lay eggs? When do they leave? How do they move in relation to the wind? What characteristics of crops cause moths to leave or stay within them to mate and lay eggs? To answer some of these questions we are conducting a series of mark recapture studies at Myall Vale.

Over the last two growing seasons, sampling studies have been conducted to compare the distribution and abundance of Heliothis on different cotton varieties and to test the validity of the SIRA TAC equations which express the relationship between the number of infested plant terminals and the mean number of Heliothis per plant. Results to date show t~at the current SIRATAC equations are indeed robust under current conditions and do provide an adequate estimate of insect density, calculated from the proportion of infested terminals. Differences between the number of Heliothis found on the two main cotton varieties (Siokra and Sicala) was minimal. It should be noted however, that the past few cotton growing seasons have been characterised by very low Heliothis pressure, this has meant that our analysis has been based on samples of low density populations. It has not yet been possible to evaluate the validity of the SIRA TAC relationships at high insect pressure and conclusions on varietal differences therefore remain tentative.

The aim of the Heliothis identification project is to develop a simple kit that can be used by field workers to distinguish quickly and reliably between individual eggs and small larvae of Heliothis armigera and H. punctigera

Ecological genetics is the study of genetic changes and how these are influenced by the biological parameters of a species. One genetic change of importance to the cotton Industry Is the evolution of Insecticide resistance in Heliothls armigera. Biological parameters which are thought to determine the rate of evolution of resistance and its spread throughout the cropping areas Include population size, migration, the species' ability to overwinter in cropping areas, the frequency of egg-lays and the abundance of non-cotton hosts. The results of these studies are of more than just theoretical interest; they have led to a number of recommendations about pest control. This paper will summarise a number of studies relevant to the ecological genetics of H. armigera and H. punctigera.

The title of this discussion has a rather ominous ring to it as far as I am concerned. It suggests a need to make some sort of futuristic predictions about the directions the cotton industry will take over the next decade or two. Unfortunately, history is littered with the bones of predictions gone wrong. People make predictions about the dire consequences of increased population growth, energy shortages or greenhouse effects, and about which horse will win the last race at Doomben on Saturday. At least half of the predictions turn out to be wrong, but that doesn't seem to stop people sticking their necks out. It does suggest, however, that a bit of caution is needed.

To better understand the new Research and Development Corporation I feel it would be appropriate to review cotton research historical I y, as background lo the soon to be created corporation.